The project has started to build a data base of historical records using newspaper articles and government reports and that has allowed to identify and document past cyclones that made landfall over the Mexican Pacific States. The study of three tropical cyclones that made landfall over northwestern Mexico showed that “external” factors such as the inflow of warm dry air from the western United States need to be understood for better track prediction in the Eastern Pacific. Circulation speed increases a cyclone’s (destructive) energy surface friction decreases it. Cyclone intensity depends on mass and energy budgets in the atmosphere and how they interact with the ocean. Results provide evidence of the role played by atmospheric circulations as important determinants of storm tracks and rainfall over the region. Provide training of graduate students, particularly in Latin Americaĭevelop recommendations to improve the ability of Weather Services to forecast tropical cyclones Improve the understanding of tropical cyclone intensification and evolution in the East Pacific through observations and model simulations, and identify potential global warming effects on cyclones Accuracy and reliability need to be improved for effective disaster prevention and this project seeks to identify model and data needs for improved forecasts.
The Mexican Meteorological Service and the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) issue forecasts of track and intensity for tropical cyclones, which help emergency managers prepare warnings for the public. The Eastern Pacific has the highest density of cyclones worldwide, and upon landfall they often produce catastrophic rains, flooding and landslides.
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